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The last auction of the year and this will be a relatively brief commentary as I have a hectic few days ahead and I have less to say!!

Ahead of the last auction I said:

“I expect another flattish to soft auction but I am hoping for something positive”

When in the business of producing investment offers, as is MyFarm, it is critical that we get the forecasts as ‘right as possible’. We can only rely on the information to hand - inevitably the returns in the rural space are dependent on assumptions on three things; production yield, product returns and costs of production.

  • Micoplasma bovis found in Hawke’s Bay
  • Commodity Milk Value slides to $5.03
  • US cheese exports continue to grow
  • Poor weather curbs Australian production


  • Fonterra drops milk price forecast
  • Synlait eyes North Island expansion
  • Slightly weaker GDT
  • Russia harvests 128.2mt in 2018

  • Drought risk looms in NZ
  • Murray Goulburn settles with ASIC
  • Global trade up 4.5% YTD
  • US imported beef prices ease


Media Release
Thursday 23 November 2017

  • NZ October milk supply up 2.9%
  • Murray Goulburn settles with ASIC
  • GDT index down 3.4%
  • US imported beef prices jump


The traded commodity dairy market has been a little quiet over the last 2 weeks with many NZX participants in Singapore the week before last for the dairy conference which is now locked in many diaries (I must put it in mine!)

However, there is a good deal going on in corporate, financial and commodity markets more generally so I thought that I would focus on a few of these things, augmented by some of my favourite charts from the last 2 weeks. As a result there is probably a good deal more “editorial” than usual so feel free to ignore!


  • Payout likely to weaken
  • Chinese imports to fall
  • US imported beef prices stable
  • Global wheat stocks set record
  • Fonterra confirms NZ$6.75kgMS
  • Weak La Niña (may be) on the cards
  • GDT drops 3.5% 
  • Investors buy farms on low yields


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